Who are you predicting will be the Democrat nominee in the Iowa Caucus tonight?

(Not who do you want to be the nominee.)

I'm thinking it will be Obama. By a little. Clinton has a good chance, but other candidates with no chance are telling their folks to caucus for Obama.

BTW, the last several presidential elections, who won Iowa also either won the election or their parties nomination.

Based on the coverage we are seeing in Europe they are calling it a three horse race.

Seems it will all come down to the weather and the turnout demographics.

Clinton needs the old people and Obama needs the students.

At the moment though I agree Obama seems to have a slight edge.

I think Obama's main edge is that Kucinich and I think Biden are telling their campaigners to caucus (vote) for them being they don't have enough "market share" to be considered.

I thought it was interesting that Democrats allow a second preference vote to be passed if the first candidate doesn't gain a market share but republicans don't.

This is similar to our voting system of preferential voting.

Like Mary, all I have to go on is the media coverage here locally. And my gut feeling - which is saying Obama.

Each state/party handles their primary elections differently.

Wow, Edwards is leading the Dems, Obama is in third place. 17% reporting and its pretty close.

With 54% reporting Obama has pulled out a slight lead, Clinton is pretty much neck and neck with Edwards. I didn't expect the ambulance chaser to do this well.

He was the third party european media were saying was the third horse in the race.

Looks like, with 85% reporting, he's tied Clinton for 2nd place.

Obama 37%

Clinton/Edwards 30%

Unless something strange happens looks like Obama will take it.

They've already pretty much declared Obama will take it, as well as Huckabee for the other side. Once the race leaves Iowa and moves on to the industrialized part of the country, you'll see Hilary taking lead. She has California, New York, etc locked.

Looks like with 95% reporting Edwards has 2nd place leaving Clinton with a close 3rd. Only a couple hours ago I was listening to people talk about the possibility of Clinton coming in third with a lot of skepticism.

Count me in, I can't understand what anyone, even a government school educated liberal, likes about Edwards.

What's bad about him from the liberal point of view? I don't know much about his positions.

Here's Obama's victory speech on youtube. Music to a government educated liberal's ears.

I don't understand it either. However, some reports say he has basically been campaigning in Iowa since 2003, and that he has been to all 99 counties... twice.

He probably talked to every single person who voted for him--and a lot who didn't.

I'm guessing he won't do as well in NW--we'll see.