For those who have always wondered why the history books don't seem to shed light on today, let alone tomorrow, here's a great read. It has spent many weeks on the NY Times nonfiction bestseller list. As I write this in September 2007, I think it might not yet be out in paperback. But it might already be in your local library.

The Black Swan, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, pokes a sharp stick into the eye of contemporary academic self-assurance. Too many "experts" claim their fame by forecasting the future based on observing the past. The problem is, something always happens that they didn't expect, with big consequences. Then those same experts get busy explaining how it wasn't their fault they failed to see it coming.

Taleb says experts begin with an idea of how they think the world ought to work, then spend their time looking for proof. That's a mistake, because all the agreeable evidence in the world cannot prove a theory, while a single, contrary example is all it takes to disprove one. He says we shouldn't rely on "experts" who won't look for evidence that might disprove their theory. The trouble with many experts is, they aren't.

If experts cannot see what's coming, then we need some other plan to get ready for the unexpected. Taleb offers some useful thoughts.

The book will satisfy readers on many levels. If you've ever suffered through a pointless lecture by a pompous know-it-all, you'll enjoy this book. Expecially the part about practical jokes, such as putting feathers up their noses unawares to make them sneeze. It helps if you have some working knowledge of math. But Taleb gets his point across even if it has been a while since the reader last smiled at numbers.