Interesting view!

I wonder ... speaking about probabilities is tricky in the context of free will. I think a probability really measures our *knowledge* of an outcome, not the true likelihood of an event.

If a flip a coin, the probability of a "heads" is a .5 for example. If I keep my eyes closed, it remains at .5 when the coin lands. When I open my eyes, the probability of each outcome collapses to a 1 or 0. Reality doesn't change ... it's my knowledge that's changing. Quite possibly the event is deterministic from the starting toss.

Any time we talk about probabilities, we write ourselves into the equation.