Seems about as logical as the market itself. I think your prediction is about as good as any. Theres no doubt in my mind it falls into 4 figures, but how far is anyones guess.

Thing is that the stock market is not the best indicator for a recession. Traditionally its been new housing start ups but that part of the economy is so screwed up right now that its difficult to gauge. I've been curious since the early 90's when housing start ups would fail as a barometer for the economy. We're running out of room for the housing market to predict this stuff. Now its just paper I guess.